With Investors in cryptocurrency are bracing themselves for volatility as the U.S. Presidential election polls show a tight race. But What is the impact of the outcome of the elections on the future of crypto? Gregory Mall.
With Investors in cryptocurrency are bracing themselves for volatility as the U.S. Presidential election polls show a tight race. But How important is it that the election outcome affects the future of cryptocurrency in the medium and long term?
Looking We can see a clear spike in implied volatility for BTC and ETH around the U.S. elections, which isn’t surprising, given that volatility is likely to rise around that date. InterestinglyBTC Put/Call Skew (the difference in prices between a comparable Call and Put option) signals optimism along the curve. Even longer dated options with expiries beyond the election dates (>3 months) are showing a call premium over puts. This It is surprising that the presidential race is so close, and the winner is anyone’s guess. It It seems that the market is optimistic no matter what the outcome of the election.
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Source: Deribit, 15.10.2024
Source: Deribit, 15.10.2024
Until President Biden Dropped out of a race JulyIt was a bit like Trump The crypto community’s clear favorite was Bitcoin. In The aftermath of a failed assassination. July On 12th, bitcoin rose from $56,000 to $65 000, as a result of the expectation that the former President would benefit from this incident. Trump’s The way people view crypto has changed over the years. As He voiced his skepticism towards crypto, claiming it could be used as a tool to facilitate illegal activities like drug trafficking. He Also mentioned at one time that he saw bitcoin as a currency that competes against the dollar. In He has, in recent times, embraced crypto with a passion, promising that the U.S. will become a cryptocurrency nation. “bitcoin superpower” You can also read about the “crypto capital of the planet” Under his leadership. His Campaign now accepting bitcoin donations He Also, he said he would replace SEC Commission Chair Gary Gensler, a figure who is notoriously hated by crypto enthusiasts. This It seems that pivot has worked. Most The crypto community seems to be rallying around Trump.
But Trump It is not only him who has noticed the growing number of crypto constituents. While The following are some of the ways to get in touch with us. Biden The administration has adopted a strict approach to crypto legislation. Vice President Harris She has taken a more positive view of the technology and refuted allegations that she would want to crackdown on the industry. HarrisSpecial interest groups that promote crypto are increasing their pressure on the government to support it. By AugustThe crypto industry has already spent an unprecedented amount of money. Donations of $119M According to research conducted by the non-profit Public Citizen. According According to the report crypto corporations contributed nearly half (44%) of corporate money this year in the election.
So Which candidate is best for crypto? Maybe What is the real question? Although It is a common belief that a Trump The options market is cautiously optimistic despite the highly unpredictability of the outcome. With Estimate 40% American Adults owning cryptoIt seems that neither candidate is able to ignore the need for a level-playing-field in regulatory matters any longer. Now It is a different story if the candidates actually follow through on their electoral promises. But The numbers and public discourse show just how far the industry, which was once a libertarian niche, has evolved in recent years. It is now a powerhouse that has significant lobbying influence and power.
Note: The The views expressed in this article are those of the author, and not necessarily those of CoinDesk. Inc. Or its owners and affiliates.
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