As Bitcoin once again finds itself in price discovery mode, market watchers and enthusiasts are curious: has retail FOMO set in yet, or is the retail surge we’ve seen in past bull cycles still on the horizon? Using data from active addresses, historical cycles, and various market indicators, we’ll examine where the Bitcoin What is the current state of the market and what might it signal for the near future?
Rising Interest
One The number of new retailers is one of the best indicators of retail interest. Bitcoin Addresses created HistoricallyThe sharp increase in new addresses has often been the beginning of a bull market as new retail investor floods the market. In recent months, however, the growth in new addresses hasn’t been as sharp as one might expect. Last year, we saw around 791,000 new addresses created in a single day—a sign of considerable retail interest. In In comparison, we are now significantly lower. However, we have seen a modest increase in new addresses recently.
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Google Trends Also reflects this tempered attention. Although searches for “Bitcoin” have been increasing in the past month, they remain far below previous peaks in 2021 and 2017. It Retail investors have a renewed interest in the markets, but they are not as fervently excited as those who are driven by FOMO.
Supply Shift
We We are observing a slight shift in Bitcoin From long-term to newer, short-term holders. This The shift in the supply can indicate a possible new market phase where experienced holders are selling their shares to newer market players and taking their profits. However, the overall number of coins transferred remains relatively low, indicating that long-term holders aren’t yet parting with their Bitcoin in significant volumes.
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HistoricallyDuring the last bull run of 2020-2021, there were large outflows by long-term holders into newer investors. This led to a subsequent price rise. CurrentlyThe shift in price is minor and long-term holders appear to be unfazed. They continue to hold onto their Bitcoin despite market gains. This The refusal to sell indicates that the holders are confident of further upside potential.
The following are some of the ways to get in touch with each other Spot-Driven Rally
The importance of Bitcoin’s latest rally is its spot-driven nature, in contrast to previous bull runs heavily fueled by leveraged positions. Open Interest in Bitcoin The derivatives market has only seen minor increases in comparison to previous peaks. For Open interest, for example, was significant before 2022’s FTX crash. A market driven by spot prices, without excessive leverage tends to be more resilient and stable, as fewer investors risk forced liquidation.
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Big Holders Accumulating
Interestingly, while retail addresses haven’t increased substantially, “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC have been rising. Over In the last few weeks, wallets that hold large amounts of BTC have added tens and thousands of coins worth billions of dollars. This Increased confidence among Bitcoin’s largest investors that the current price levels have more room to grow, even as Bitcoin The highest level ever reached.
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In past bull cycles, we saw whales exit or decrease their positions near market peaks, a behavior we’re not seeing this time. This trend of accumulation by experienced holders is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests faith in the market’s long-term potential.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs has brought renewed attention, we’re not yet seeing the telltale signs of widespread retail FOMO. The Retail interest is subdued, suggesting that we may only be at the beginning phase of a rally. Long-term investors remain confident, whales accumulate and leverage remains modest. These are all indicators of an ongoing, healthy rally.
As we continue into this bull cycle, the market’s structure suggests that the potential for a larger retail-driven surge remains ahead. If If this retail interest materializes it could propel Bitcoin New heights
For Check out this recent YouTube video for a deeper look at the topic. Has Retail Bitcoin FOMO Begun?
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