Will Trump's Executive Order Break Bitcoin's Four-Year Market Cycle?

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The Bitcoin The market is defined for many years by an immutable cycle of four years, which includes three years of price increases followed by a dramatic correction. HoweverThe policy shift from WashingtonFormer President Donald TrumpThis cycle may be broken and a new age of sustained growth in the crypto industry could begin.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer You can also check out our other articles. Bitwise Asset ManagementRecently, an interesting question was posed. Can Trump’s Executive Order break crypto’s four-year cycle? His The answer is nuanced and leans to a resounding yes.

The Four-Year Cycle Recap

Hougan He clarifies that he believes the four-year Bitcoin Market cycles are not driven by Bitcoin's halving events. He states, "People try to link it to bitcoin’s quadrennial ‘halving,’ but those halvings are misaligned with the cycle, having occurred in 2016, 2020, and 2024."

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been historically driven by a mix of investor sentiment, technological breakthroughs, and market dynamics. Typically, a bull run emerges following a significant catalyst—be it infrastructure improvements or institutional adoption—which attracts new capital and fuels speculation. Over time, leverage accumulates, excesses emerge, and a major event—such as regulatory crackdowns or financial fraud—triggers a brutal correction.

This The pattern is repeated: From the beginning of Mt. Gox’s implosion in 2014 to the ICO boom and bust of 2017-2018, and most recently, the deleveraging crisis of 2022 with the collapse of FTX and Three Arrows Capital. YetEvery winter is followed by a stronger and more persistent resurgence. Bitcoin's latest bull run spurred by the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin ETFs by 2024

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The Executive OrderA Game Changer

The fundamental question Hougan If you are wondering whether to explore, then this is the place for you. Trump’s recent Executive OrderThis will break the cycle of digital asset development in the U.S. The The most optimistic stance is the order which defines a regulatory framework, and envisions even a digital assets stockpile at national level. Bitcoin From any U.S. sitting president or former U.S.

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The There are many implications.

Regulatory Clarity: By By eliminating any legal uncertainties, the EO opens up the flow of institutional capital into Bitcoin At a scale never before seen
Wall Street Integration: With Major banks are now allowed to enter the crypto space because the SEC has embraced it. Bitcoin Clients can receive custody, structured products, and lending.
Government Adoption: The Concept of a National Digital Asset Stockpile Hints at Future Where U.S. Treasury Could hold Bitcoin Its status as digital currency is solidified by its use as a safe-haven asset.

These Although the effects will not manifest themselves immediately, they can have a significant impact. Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Unlike previous cycles that were driven by speculative retail euphoria, this shift is underpinned by institutional adoption and regulatory endorsement—a far more stable foundation.

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Why Hundreds You can also find out more about the following: Companies Will Buy Bitcoin By 2025

The End You can also find out more about the following: Crypto Winters?

If History would repeat itself Bitcoin The economy would grow through 2025, before experiencing a major decline in 2026. However, Hougan It is possible that this time will be different. While He acknowledges that there is a risk of excessive speculation and bubbles driven by leverage, but he believes the sheer size of the institutional adoption will stop the long-term bear market seen in the recent past.

This This is an important distinction. In Previous cycles Bitcoin Lacking in a large base of value-oriented investment. TodayETFs make it easy for sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and hedge funds to invest in BitcoinThe asset no longer depends solely on the retail market. The result? Corrections There will still be some earthquakes, but these are likely to be shorter and shallower.

What Comes Next?

Bitcoin BlackRock CEO and other industry leaders have made predictions that BlackRock has crossed $100,000. Larry FinkIt is possible that it will reach $ 700,000 within the next few years. If Trump’s policies accelerate institutional adoption, the typical four-year pattern could be replaced by a more traditional asset-class growth trajectory—akin to how gold responded to the end of the gold standard in the 1970s.

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While risks remain—including unforeseen regulatory reversals and excessive leverage—the direction of travel is clear: Bitcoin Is becoming a popular financial asset. If This four-year cycle has been driven by Bitcoin’s infancy and speculative nature, its maturation may render such cycles obsolete.

Conclusion

For Investors have been using the four-year cycles as a guide for over a decade. Bitcoin’s market movements. But Trump’s Executive Order could be the defining moment that disrupts this pattern, replacing it with a more sustained and institutionally-driven growth phase. As Wall StreetCorporations and governments are increasingly embracing Bitcoin, the question is no longer if crypto winter will come in 2026—but rather if it will come at all.

Disclaimer: This The article was written solely for informative purposes and is not intended as financial advice. Readers Before making any investment decision, it is recommended that you conduct independent research.

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